AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

August 14, 2018

Corn futures are currently 4 to 5 cents higher in most contracts on Turnaround Tuesday. The USDA Crop Progress report indicated that 73% of the US corn crop was in the dough stage as of Sunday, with 26% dented vs. the 13% average. All states except NC were above normal pace for denting. Condition ratings were down 1% in the gd/ex categories to 70%, as the Brugler500 Index dropped 2 to 377. The only states to show an increase in ratings were SD and PA, with IA and KS steady. ND conditions deteriorated by 14 points, with NE down 6 and IL 5 lower. Ukraine’s UkragroConsult increased their 2018 corn production estimate by 1.2 MMT to 28.5, moving closer to USDA’s 31 MMT.

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.61, up 4 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.75 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.86 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents

May 19 Corn is at $3.93 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents

Soybeans

August 14, 2018

Soybean futures are trading 8 to 11 cents higher in the front months at midday. Nearby soy meal is up $4.30/ton, with soy oil 17 points lower. Reports of Brazilian producers plowing up sugar cane fields to plant soybeans are being ignored. Argentina might be halting the phase out of export tariffs on soybeans and products. NASS reported that 84% of the US soybean crop was setting pods as of Sunday vs. the average of 72%. Michigan is the only state to lag their average pace. The crop was rated at 66% good/ex, with the Brugler500 Index dropping 1 point from last week to 369. Conditions improved last week in IN, OH and SD among other states, with ND down 20 points in the Brugler500 Index system and both NE and MO dropping 9. Wednesday’s NOPA report is expected to show 161.745 mbu of soybeans were crushed during July, which would be well above last July.

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.61 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.67 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.79, up 10 1/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $8.91, up 10 1/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal is at $327.80, up $4.30

Aug 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.07, down $0.17

Wheat

August 14, 2018

Wheat futures are showing 2 to 4 cents gains in the winter wheat contracts at midday. Spring wheat is down 1 to 3 cents following yesterday afternoon’s report of higher condition ratings. The winter wheat crop was 96% harvested on 8/12 (96% avg), with the spring wheat crop 35% harvested vs. the normal pace of 27%. Most spring wheat states are ahead of their average, with ID and WA lagging. Spring wheat condition ratings were up 1% to 65% gd/ex, moving the Brugler500 Index up 1 to 382. MN conditions were down 4 points, with ND and MT up 2. Egypt’s GASC is seeking wheat for late Sep/early Oct delivery, with results out later today.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.37 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.43 3/4, up 3 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.90 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents

Cattle

August 14, 2018

Live cattle futures are trading 10 to 40 cents higher in most contracts on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures are mixed with nearby Aug up a quarter and back months lower. The CME feeder cattle index was steady with the previous day on 8/10, at $151.12. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.12 at $209.55, while Select boxes were $1.87 higher at $201.53. USDA FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 118,000 head on Monday. That is even with the previous week and 3,000 head above the same week in 2017.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $107.600, up $0.400,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $108.375, up $0.225,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $112.200, up $0.200,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.900, up $0.250

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.275, down $0.175

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.400, down $0.550

Lean Hogs

August 14, 2018

Lean hog futures are showing losses of 52.5 cent in nearby Aug (expiring today), with most other contracts higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.76 on August 10, to $58.28. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 74 cents from the previous day at $70.27 on Tuesday morning. The loin, picnic, and belly were all lower. The national base hog carcass value was down $1.10 in the Tuesday AM report, with the weighted average @ $42.63. USDA estimated hog slaughter at 467,000 head on Monday. That is up 72,000 head from last week as the plants were back online, and 18,000 head above the same week last year.

Aug 18 Hogs are at $55.000, down $0.525,

Oct 18 Hogs are at $52.000, up $0.350

Dec 18 Hogs are at $48.875, up $0.300

Cotton

August 14, 2018

Cotton futures are mostly steady to 24 points higher in the front months today, with deferred contracts 18 to 30 points lower. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed that 77% of the US cotton crop was setting bolls as of Sunday, with 13% of the crop showing those bolls opening. Cotton progress in TX showed 17% of the crop’s bolls were opening as of Sunday, with the average at 12%. The good/excellent condition categories were UNCH at 40%, with the Brugler500 Index down 5 points to 300 on an increase in the very poor ratings. Condition ratings in TX fell another 9 points to 248, with GA down 5 at 369. The Cotlook A index was down a sharp 205 points from the previous day at 95.25 cents/lb on August 13.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 83.35, up 21 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 83, up 24 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 83.21, up 1 point

May 19 Cotton is at 83.510, down 19 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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