AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Hanging Out At UNCH

November 18, 2019

Corn futures are trading UNCH to fractionally higher this morning. Corn futures lost 4 to 4 1/2 cents on Friday with December 6 cents lower for the full week. Export sales are improving, but rather slowly. USDA’s weekly export sales update showed corn export sales were 19.2% higher wk/wk as of 11/07. The 581,568 MT of sales, however, were only 65.16% of the same week last year. USDA also reported weekly exports for the week ending 11/07, showing that 602,235 MT, or 23.71 mbu, were shipped for the week. That is 89.5% higher wk/wk, but still well below the same week last year. Corn accumulated shipments are 178.78 mbu, 61.23% below last year’s pace. The Commitment of Traders Report on Friday afternoon showed that as of November 12, managed money spec funds were still adding to their net short for corn futures. They increased their short position by 5.8% wk/wk. Corn harvest is likely still dragging behind the average pace of 92%, with trade ideas closer to 78% for tonight’s report.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market Up 1 to 1 1/2 Cents

November 18, 2019

Beans are beginning the week 1 to 1 1/2 cents higher. Nearby futures finished with gains of 1 to 1 1/2 cents on Friday. Soybean meal closed Friday with $4.00/ton gain, which pushed the futures to a $2.20 gain for the week. Soybean oil ended Friday’s session 35 points lower on the day and 107 points lower on the week. The NOPA Oilseed Crush Report showed 175.397 mbu, which was above published trader expectations of ~166.8 mbu. Oil stocks were 1.423 billion pounds. The Commitment of Traders Report showed managed money funds were net long soybeans for the 6th consecutive week. Managed money was net short for Soybean meal, with bean oil seeing an increase in spec net long as of 11/12. Weekly soybean export sales were 30.7% lower than last week at 1.253 MMT through 11/07. Exports were also lower than the previous week, down 18.3% to 1.274 MMT shipped. Of those weekly shipments, 54.42% were headed for China. China’s accumulated weekly imports continue to outpace last year with their MY accumulated 3.153 MMT of soybeans being 830.12% higher. The MYTD for all accumulated soybean exports have been updated to 10.732 MMT, putting us 11.6% ahead of last MY year’s pace. Trade ideas to harvest progress are running 91-92%, with 95% being average for this date.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Mixed on Differing Export and Stocks Trends

November 18, 2019

Futures are 1 to 2 cents lower this morning in the Chicago and KC contracts, but up about the same in Minneapolis spring wheat. MPLS wheat futures showed the biggest decrease when Friday’s 9 cent drop pushed the week/week loss to 15 cents. Chicago Dec showed a 5 cent loss on Friday and a 7 1/2 cent loss on the week, and KC Dec futures 5 1/2 loss on Friday ensured a weekly loss of 5 cents. CFTC reported that managed money reversed their Chicago wheat position from a 654 contract short to a 391 contract long as of 11/12. Kansas City wheat futures have a net short by managed money spec funds, to the tune of 22,689 contracts. They were more bearish the week before. The USDA weekly export sales number for the week ending 11/07 was 238,620 MT. Unshipped wheat sales are 25.9% below the same week last year. The USDA reported 453,591 MT of wheat shipments for the same week, pushing the MY accumulated shipments to 11.219 MMT (26.87% above last year’s pace). HRW made up 18.47% of the weekly shipments, down from 38% the previous week. SRW, with a 391% increase wk/wk, made up a 13.71% share of weekly exports for the week ending 11/07. Similarly white wheat saw 268.79% wk/wk increase in shipments, white wheat weekly exports occupied a 33.39% share of all wheat weekly exports. HRS wheat maintains a steady 26.77% share of accumulated wheat exports.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Sees Larger Spec Longs

November 18, 2019

Live cattle futures changed little on Friday, with 2 to 5 cent gains, and losses of 2 cents in front months. Dec futures were 15 cents lower week/week. Feeder cattle futures were down by 37 cents for the soon to expire Nov contract; the other nearbys saw gains of 15 to 22 cents. Spec funds in live cattle futures were again net long as of 11/12. Managed money traders changed sides as short position open interest shrank for the 8th consecutive week, matching the long position increases. The CFTC reported that managed money was net long for feeder cattle futures. That marks the second consecutive Tuesday with that being the case. Managed money has become less net short or more net long (increasingly bullish) for 10 consecutive weeks, for a total swing of 8,446 contracts. The 11/14 CME Feeder Cattle index was 27 cents lower at $147.12. Choice boxes saw a 26 cent decrease on Friday, while select boxes had fallen by $1.5 to $214.33. The Fed Cattle Exchange reported no sales on the 1,264 head listed. The USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter total for the week through Saturday is 657,000 head. That is 6,000 head above last week’s total, and is 9,000 head more yr/yr.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Still Trying to Find More Buyers Than Sellers

November 18, 2019

Dec futures posted a daily gain of 45 cents on Friday, but it wasn’t enough to rally all the way back as the contract finished $0.925 lower week/week. Managed money open interest for lean hogs fell 10 contracts for the week. The 11/13 CME Lean Hog Index was 5 cents lower at $59.50. The Friday pork carcass cutout value was $1.09 higher. The Belly primal showed us it’s volatility, swinging more than $11.52 and gave back more than all of it to finish 5 cents lower on the day. The national average base hog price up 54 cents for Friday, shown at $42.73. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter through Saturday is 2.749 million head through the week, which is 56,000 head more than last week’s total. The YTD hog slaughter is estimated at 112.762 million head as of 11/16.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Sees Solid Export Data

November 18, 2019

Cotton futures are trading 68 to 74 points lower to start the week. Nearby cotton futures finished higher on Friday with gains of 54 to 61 points, reclaiming earlier losses and pushing Dec futures into a 16 point gain on the week. The CFTC reported spec funds in cotton futures and options were net short by 14,272 positions, which is 975 less short than the previous release. Cotton weekly export sales were at 345,079 running bales for the week ending 11/07, that is a 52.09% increase over the previous week. The USDA reported 126,177 bales shipped for the same week. Accumulated exports are now 2.610 million bales, 15.98% above last year’s pace. The Seam reported 5,353 bales sold online for 11/14, bringing the weekly accumulated sales to 18,087 bales. The 11/14 Cotlook A Index fell by 90 points to 74.90 cents/lb. Good through 11/21, yesterday’s updated AWP for cotton is 57.06 cents/lb, which was back up 46 points.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com