Soybeans - Just My Opinion
Tom Fritz of International Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Thu Jan 10, 3:16PM CST

Jan Soybeans closed 16 cents lower ($8.95.5), March 17.25 cents lower ($9.06.75) & July 16.75 cents lower ($9.32.25)

Jan Soybean Meal closed $6.4 lower ($312.6), March $6.6 lower ($316.8) & July $5.9 lower ($324.3)

Jan Soybean Oil closed 38 pts lower ($27.94), March 41 pts lower ($28.19) & July 38 pts lower ($28.78)

CONAB suggests Brazil soybean crop at 118.8 M T. vs. previous estimate of 120.066 M T.

In recent days weve been hearing all sorts of reductions to the Brazilian soybean crop. The CONAB number was nowhere near as dire as some had been touting. Earlier this week a well-respected Brazilian consulting agency was rumored to have put the Brazilian crop size at 109.0 M T. Today, in print, their number was 117.6 M T. I will admit that if the currently dry areas of Brazil dont get some relief soon crop sizes will continue to edge lower. Despite statements from US trade representatives back from their China meeting suggesting Chinas pledge to purchase substantial amounts of US agriculture cash traders in know have been silent about any new purchases. The Chinese statement following this meeting mentioned nothing specifically in regards to US agricultural purchases. Part of the bottom line to todays trade is that the recent bulls have gotten tired of waiting/wishing and hoping for additional Chinese purchases.

Similar to interior cash corn markets the interior cash soybean markets are running steady to lower. The Gulf for soybeans continues to edge lower as well. Soybean spreads, March forward, reflected the bearish looking cash markets. Offers to sell cash soybean meal continue to look for buyers as they edge lower as well. Needless to say meal spreads had a bearish bias.

Despite todays ugly looking performance in the soybean complex we are still a trading range affair. Earlier this week we came close to testing the trading range highs and we have failed to follow through. I cant help but noticing that recently strong looking daily momentum indicators are now on the verge of rolling over. So whats out there to keep the US soy complex alive; additional Chinese soy purchases (which I dont believe are coming anytime soon) and/or a continued shrinking Brazilian soy crop.

Daily Support & Resistance for 01/11

Mch Soybeans: $9.00 ($8.95) - $9.15

Mch Soybean Meal: $314.0 ($311.0) 321.0

Mch Soybean Oil: $27.80 - $28.55

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